Ege Erdil

Commentary by Ege Erdil

From the commentary rail — every link leaves the site for the original piece.

• 26 April 2025 · Epoch AIThe case for multi-decade AI timelinesIn this Gradient Updates weekly issue, Ege discusses the case for multi-decade AI timelines.
• 21 March 2025 · Epoch AIMost AI value will come from broad automation, not from R&DAI's biggest impact will come from broad labor automation—not R&D—driving economic growth through scale, not scientific breakthroughs.
• 7 March 2025 · Epoch AIWhat AI can currently do is not the storyForecasting AI progress requires more than extrapolating current capabilities; understanding fundamental task difficulty is key to predicting future breakthroughs.
• 21 February 2025 · Epoch AIAI progress is about to speed upAI progress is accelerating, with next-gen models surpassing GPT-4 in compute power, driving major leaps in reasoning, coding, and math capabilities.
• 31 January 2025 · Epoch AIWhat went into training DeepSeek-R1?On January 20th, 2025, DeepSeek released their latest open-weights reasoning model, DeepSeek-R1, which is on par with OpenAI’s o1 in benchmark performance.
• 18 January 2025 · Epoch AIHow has DeepSeek improved the Transformer architecture?DeepSeek has recently released DeepSeek v3, which is currently state-of-the-art in benchmark performance among open-weight models, alongside a technical report describing in some detail the training of the model.
• 27 December 2024 · Epoch AIMoravec’s paradox and its implicationsSince the birth of the field of artificial intelligence in the 20th century, researchers have observed that the difficulty of a task for humans at best weakly correlates with its difficulty for AI systems.
• 20 December 2024 · Epoch AIHow do mixture-of-experts models compare to dense models in inference?In last week’s Gradient Updates issue, I discussed how we can guess that GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet have significantly fewer parameters than GPT-4.
• 13 December 2024 · Epoch AIFrontier language models have become much smallerBetween the release of the original Transformer in 2017 and the release of GPT-4, language models at the frontier of capabilities became much larger.
• 6 December 2024 · Epoch AIWhat did US export controls mean for China’s AI capabilities?Four days ago, the US government announced new rules around the export of powerful chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China.